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Early in my career 鈥� when the world was still young and , I was a periodic columnist for Talking Points Memo. Nearly 10 years ago, I wrote : 

It鈥檚 increasingly clear that universal pre-K is coming. It probably won鈥檛 arrive in 2015. It might not be for a few more years. But this longtime progressive dream is going to happen 鈥� you can take that to the bank.

If any of you happen to be longtime readers who did, in fact, take my optimism to the bank, I鈥檓 sorry. Here in 2024, universal pre-K remains a distant dream 鈥� the National Institute for Early Education Research reports that just 35% of all 4 year olds were enrolled in public programs. U.S. pre-K enrollment actually dropped from to . 

I was hardly . Pre-K had relatively good political prospects. Washington, D.C.鈥檚 universal pre-K system 鈥� where I already had one child enrolled (and would eventually have three) 鈥� was about three years into full implementation, wasn鈥檛 far behind, and New York City鈥檚 and expansions were imminent. It wasn鈥檛 just the big blue cities getting in on the act! States like , and were investing in large pre-K programs. Almost every year, President Obama would introduce universal pre-K proposals 鈥� and by 2014, they were . 

Pre-K also benefited from solid research backing 鈥� children鈥檚 brains have particularly high levels of neuroplasticity in the early years, meaning that their developmental trajectories are than they will be in later years. Early education programs that expose young children to high-quality learning environments full of rich language and engaging activities can make the most of this moment and help advance children鈥檚 development.

A has found that early education investments help kids prepare for kindergarten; develop stronger academic, social, and linguistic abilities; and get better long-term life outcomes. Further, these impacts save the public money by helping schools work more efficiently 鈥� for instance, pre-K programs can . In 2022, researchers even found that the appeared to have because of the program: higher high school graduation rates, greater college enrollment rates, reduced criminal behavior and the like. 

Given our growing about how to make it , it鈥檚 especially relevant to note that well-funded universal pre-K programs can help parents . New research has corroborated these findings, showing that . Shoot, even at a macroeconomic level, pre-K鈥檚 a good policy bet 鈥� it鈥檚 overall more efficient and cheaper to have kids in quality early learning classrooms with student-teacher ratios around 8:1 than it is to have kids at home with one parent and only a sibling or two. 

Not coincidentally, other developed countries have already devoted considerable resources to a suite of . 

Nonetheless, like , , renaming Twitter as X,  universal pre-K hasn鈥檛 taken off. There are bright spots: is pushing towards universal coverage, 厂别补迟迟濒别鈥檚 pre-K program is , and the Biden administration, while it still could, large federal early education investments. But on balance, a decade after my misbegotten prediction, pre-K鈥檚 political prospects are somewhat less rosy. has been uneven, and even New York City鈥檚 established pre-K program is . 

Washington, D.C.鈥檚 pre-K program that many 鈥� 鈥� believed was uniquely helpful for raising its quality. Some cities, like , are struggling with pre-K expansion, while pre-K class sizes are going up . Tennessee鈥檚 pre-K classrooms have been under increased scrutiny after of their effectiveness. 

What happened? Why hasn鈥檛 policy tracked the evidence that compelled so many of us a decade ago?

Let鈥檚 not overthink this. The main problem is politics. During the campaign, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris her party鈥檚 support for large national early education investments. If she鈥檇 won and Democrats had enough votes in Congress, universal pre-K would already be rolling out. This could still be true if Michigan鈥檚 Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, were to run and win the White House in 2028. 

National conservative leadership on pre-K has largely evaporated. Republicans who supported universal pre-K 鈥� like 鈥� have been more or less pushed out of the party. The campaign of president-elect Donald Trump didn鈥檛 take a clear position on any early education investments 鈥� let alone pre-K 鈥� but as president, , the federal government鈥檚 largest investment in early learning for 4 year olds. Furthermore, writing in the Heritage Foundation鈥檚 much-discussed 鈥�,鈥� usually referred to as 鈥淧roject 2025,鈥� Trump鈥檚 conservative allies have called for Head Start to be defunded.

Back in 2015, it was possible to look forward and see a world where local, state and federal policymakers across the political spectrum would turn to universal pre-K as 1) a powerful intervention for improving kids鈥� linguistic, social and academic development; 2) a way to ease financial pressures for families and 3) a way to use public education dollars more efficiently. While it鈥檚 always a fool鈥檚 errand to trust strong data to deliver political progress, universal pre-K seemed like such a good fit for so many challenges facing U.S. public education 鈥� and American families. 

Obviously I was wrong. Wiser heads knew it right away. Soon after I wrote that TPM column, I met the late early education expert Ruby Takanishi for coffee. She pulled out a printed copy of my piece, plopped it on the table, and told me that I was not the first progressive to prophesy a major pre-K expansion just around the corner. 

鈥淚 hope you鈥檙e right,鈥� she said with a wry smile, 鈥渂ut I bet you won鈥檛 be the last.鈥� 

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